The Last 20

At this time of year, there is always talk of entering the playoffs with momentum. Dean Lombardi was recently quoted as saying he’s seen it go both ways. Teams can fizzle out after a late season run, or come on strong in the playoffs despite a poor end to the regular season.

Now that the Kings are officially in the playoffs after a long drought, how does their current end-of-season record compare with past Stanley Cup finalists? And is it any indication how the Kings might do come playoff time? Well, here are the results…

I took the last 20 regular season games from the past 5 Stanley Cup finalists (sorted by points):

The last 5 Champions:
Pittsburgh: 15-2-3 33PTS
Tampa Bay: 14-5-1 29PTS
Anaheim: 13-4-3 29PTS
Detroit: 12-6-2 26PTS
>>Carolina: 9-8-3 21PTS<<

The last 5 runners up:
Ottawa: 12-3-5 29PTS
Pittsburgh: 12-6-2 26PTS
Calgary: 11-7-2 24PTS
Detroit:10-8-2 22PTS
>>Edmonton: 9-7-4 22PTS<<

What does this tell us? Of the Champions, the low in wins (9) and points (21) were the Carolina Hurricanes. Of the runners up, the low in wins (9) and points (22) was Edmonton. Detroit also made the finals last year with 22 points in the final 20 games.

Now let’s look at where the Kings are currently: 6-7-3 with 15 points and 4 games to go (and a possible 8 points). If they win out, they will be 10-7-3 with 23 points in the final 20 games. Not great, but respectable… and unlikely.

If the past 5 seasons are any indication, the Kings have a daunting task in front of them. They need to go at least 3 and 1 in their final 4 games to reach the low mark of 9 wins and 21 points set by the eventual 2006 Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes.

However, the recent 4 game losing  streak really hurt their chances. Of the 10 teams above, 8 had 10 or more wins in the last 20 games. 7 had 11 or better. Only 2 had 9 wins or just 20%. Is it possible for the Kings to make the finals? Sure. Likely? No.

Perhaps a further analysis of past finalists will reveal a rosier picture. Or perhaps Justin Williams will be the lucky charm needed to make it happen. I’m hoping for the latter.